Solar@Work
HIGHLIGHTS FROM SOLAR TODAY’s E-BULLETIN FOR SOLAR PROS.
THE BIZ
By EaSan Drury, PauL DEnhoLm anD roBErt marGoLIS
Global rooftop photovoltaic (PV) markets are growing rapidly, fueled by a combina- tion of declining PV prices and several policy-based incentives. The future growth,
and size, of the rooftop market is highly dependent on continued PV cost reductions,
Several PV market penetration models, sharing
a similar structure and methodology, have been
developed over the last decade to quantify the
impacts of these factors on market growth. This
study uses a geospatially rich, bottom-up, PV market penetration model — the Solar Deployment
Systems (SolarDS) model developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory — to explore key
market and policy-based drivers for residential
and commercial rooftop PV markets. The identified drivers include a range of options from traditional incentives, to attractive customer financing
options, to net metering and carbon policy.
This paper describes the common structure of
PV market penetration models, with a focus on the
SolarDS model developed by the National Renewable Energy Labora-
tory. SolarDS is used to evaluate rooftop PV market drivers, and to identify market- and policy-based levers
that could be used to effectively stimulate PV markets. These levers include options ranging from traditional
incentives, to attractive customer financing options (e.g. Property Assessed Clean Energy financing for
residential customers), to net metering and carbon policy.
DRURY
DENHOLM
MARGOLIS
Read the full paper at
solartoday.org/sw.
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Modeling the U.S. Rooftop Photovoltaics Market
Installed cost is headed for $4 per watt by 2015
for residential installations, $3 per watt for commercial.
What will that mean in your local market?
SE TH MASIA
the rooftop photovoltaic
market is growing. how
much? that depends on
several market and policy-based drivers.
ury and Denholm
e members of the
ergy Forecasting
d Modeling Group
the Strategic Energy
alysis Center at
EL. Drury holds a
. in physics from the
iversity of California
Berkeley and a Ph.D.
engineering from
rvard. Denholm
lds a B.S. in physics
m James Madison
iversity and a Ph.D.
and resources, ener-analysis and policy
m the University of
sconsin at Madison.
argolis is a member
the lab’s Technology
stems and Sustain-ility Analysis Group.
holds a B.S. in elec-cal engineering from
e University of Rocher and a Ph.D. in sci-ce, technology and
vironmental policy
m Princeton.
86 September/October 2010 SOLAR TODA Y solartoday.org
NEWS BRIEFS
DOE Offers $1.45 Billion Loan Guarantee
for World’s Largest CSP Plant
The Department of Energy has offered a conditional commitment for a $1.45 billion loan guarantee
to Abengoa Solar ( abengoasolar.com). The loan will
support the construction and start-up of Solana, a
250-megawatt concentrating solar power (CSP) plant
in Arizona.
Solana will include six hours of molten-salt thermal energy storage capability, which will allow energy
to be dispatched as needed during cloudy periods
Copyright © 2010 by the American Solar Energy Society Inc. All rights reserved.
Xcel Launches First Hybrid Solar/Coal Plant
Xcel Energy ( xcelenergy.com) is now operating a
first-of-its-kind demonstration of a hybrid solar-coal
approach, using parabolic-trough solar technology
integrated with a coal-fired power plant. The project,
located at Xcel Energy's Cameo Generating Station
near Grand Junction, Colo., is designed to increase
the plant's efficiency, decrease the use of coal, test
the commercial viability of concentrating solar power
thermal integration and lower carbon dioxide emis-
sions. Abengoa Solar developed the parabolic-trough
and after sunset. With this capability, Solana will be
able to generate electricity well into the evening to
help meet the summer peak demand. The plant will
be located 70 miles southwest of Phoenix, near Gila
Bend, Ariz. Solana will produce enough energy to
serve 70,000 households and will prevent the emis-
sion of 475,000 tons of CO2 per year compared to a
natural gas-burning power plant.
